Protest. Crackdown. Repeat. It’s become an all-too-familiar cycle for Iranians.
Political disillusionment with a system that has proven unwilling or incapable of reform, coupled with economic stagnation, worsened by the trifecta of chronic mismanagement, deep corruption, and crippling sanctions, has driven repeated waves of nationwide protest in recent years.
These uprisings often last several days and, at times like the 2022 protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the religious police, have brought about profound change in society. But the pattern is familiar: people take to the streets, a violent crackdown follows, and protesters are eventually pushed back into their homes, waiting for the next confrontation.
On Friday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader who has been in power for 35 years, addressed the latest round of unrest, acknowledging the economic grievances at the heart of public anger. But he was quick to revert to old ways, drawing a stark line between what he calls legitimate protest and rioting “mercenaries,” and he warned of a heavy response.
But the regime’s old playbook may no longer be enough to contain this latest wave. These are changed times.
For one thing, these are the first protests since the summer’s 12-day war between Iran and Israel which ultimately drew in the United States and ended with serious damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. The war diminished Iran’s deterrence capability and exposed the regime’s weakness. After the war, many Iranians hoped things would change and that the government would leverage the nationalistic rally around the flag to introduce a more tenable social contract with the populace. But that didn’t happen, and things reverted to normal with dissent crushed and an ever-widening gulf between the government and its subjects.
Then there’s the amplification, on social media and on the streets of Iran, of an exiled opposition leader in the shape of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s ousted monarch. He’s been on the scene before, but there’s a noticeable rise in chants supportive of him on the streets, and a concerted effort by the likes of US far-right activist Laura Loomer to position him as Washington’s choice.
On Thursday, scores of protesters took to the streets of Tehran and many other cities chanting, “This is the last battle. Pahlavi will return” and “Long live the Shah.”
The crown prince, as he’s known to his followers, had called on protesters to take to the streets and thanked them on Friday for their courage, asking them to keep the momentum going.
Whether Reza Pahlavi can sustain influence remains uncertain. The movement has not yet reached the breadth of the 2022 protests or the scale of the 2009 Green Movement, but chants invoking the ousted monarchy and explicit calls to challenge the regime clearly signal a shift beyond purely economic protest.
The other determining factor may be the current resident of the White House. President Donald Trump warned Iran against violent repression, remarks Tehran’s leaders have dismissed as interference in domestic affairs. But given recent events in Venezuela, there’s little doubt that Iranian leaders are concerned how a president clearly uninterested in following the traditional rules of international affairs might react if Tehran reverts to its tried and tested methods to crush dissent.
For millions of Iranians inside and outside the country, this is another tumultuous episode in the country’s recent history, with familiar old faces reticent to change. But with new geopolitical dynamics at play, the ending might be unpredictable.